Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37cb8349ce792c93dd4ad7a7738458ad96f1fd888aed7b3c92f3d485e08718a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 724.8$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 475.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 5c | 439.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 9c | 432.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.86 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 337.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 59c | 292.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 259.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 79c | 248.26$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 196.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.56 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 181.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 6c | 167.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 126.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 122.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…a387backed Yes | 31c | 115.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…a1acbacked Yes | 21c | 111.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 108.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 104.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 13c | 99.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 98.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 15c | 97.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 97.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 33c | 93.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 28c | 92.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 25c | 92.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 51c | 91.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 81.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 17c | 81.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 24c | 75.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 69.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 31c | 64.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 62.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 59.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 61c | 58.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 53.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 80c | 43.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 42.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 34.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 33c | 32.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 69c | 27.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 54c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 18.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 80c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.