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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb48…94d2backed No76c1,952$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c751.52$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.046,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Yes2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14631.6%1 W · 62 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…3255backed Yes67c530.42$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.833850%19 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes15c294$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9226327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf15b…8c10backed Yes5c288$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49366.7%62 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes44c243.39$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9945619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7385…0c36backed Yes64c213.84$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.352416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-70.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes40c169.94$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes30c166.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8533018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c162.91$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.873,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c143.42$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.297,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes42c137.03$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4828329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No59c133.79$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.858160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No58c123.1$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes40c119.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9623633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes42c112.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0841733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes74c109.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.424228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c104.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes40c103.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.051,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No61c95.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes41c92.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5614626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c90.27$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3649…2a49backed Yes40c89.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes38c88.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.948727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes42c88.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.740935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No27c81.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes51c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3415759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes68c77.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.015139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes44c73.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2928119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes67c71.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3630141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No41c70.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5320342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No43c69.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8164021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes41c68.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.221,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes53c65.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No34c65.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.371,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No36c63.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8232041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No61c61.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.191,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No32c60.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.184,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.529137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No44c51.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.831,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f10…0060backed Yes43c50.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.696931.9%22 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c7d…63debacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.94860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2035168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c0…9c24backed Yes38c49.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.76911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-80.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4791…3b1abacked No57c44.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.172552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c43.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.691,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x322e…a2cebacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.69433%31 W · 63 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93e2…1b8cbacked Yes43c37.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2f…bad2backed No43c37.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.685837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes42c36.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.134633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd65a…8723backed Yes53c35.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.064586.7%39 W · 6 L+16.1wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+79.8%equal weight76+0.23 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes67c33.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.617955.7%44 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68c…779dbacked Yes44c30.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a1e…5349backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.313340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes48c29.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2116157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No58c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1813059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes68c28.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3749750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No56c28.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.531,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes47c28.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2719123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes51c27.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.274647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No57c26.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.359858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No57c26.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.292,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda36…26f5backed Yes59c24.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No58c24.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.313663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe208…e98cbacked Yes58c23.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.894551.1%23 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7da8…b5f7backed Yes64c22.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No61c22.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.771,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes64c20.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff65…f1cdbacked No56c18.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.365518.2%10 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c17.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.779,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.