CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet (BO3) - Yuqilin Pinnacle of Battle Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37edd6cbe1b6583796f44b9185f4fefa091fa63d9725ddc8cd3a8516a9a3b620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Change The Gameof Change The Game, Last Bullet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x668d…e471backed Change The Game | 61c | 3,640$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.1 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Last Bullet | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 3.6%7 W · 190 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Last Bullet | 43c | 1,309$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.16 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Last Bullet | 32c | 1,250$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.72 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Last Bullet | 48c | 1,216$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.56 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Last Bullet | 53c | 1,061$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.92 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Last Bullet | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 194 | 3.6%7 W · 187 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e0…ac15backed Change The Game | 54c | 583.44$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…6e45backed Last Bullet | 45c | 580.2$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Change The Game | 57c | 572.86$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Change The Game | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Change The Game | 57c | 444.24$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.02 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…ae39backed Change The Game | 70c | 357.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Last Bullet | 47c | 353.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5664backed Last Bullet | 37c | 276.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Last Bullet | 42c | 275.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Last Bullet | 37c | 265.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Change The Game | 26c | 250.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.03 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Last Bullet | 41c | 240.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Change The Game | 57c | 234.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Change The Game | 56c | 217.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Change The Game | 28c | 202.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Last Bullet | 15c | 201$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Last Bullet | 37c | 189.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 286 | 60.1%172 W · 114 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Last Bullet | 29c | 185.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -9.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Change The Game | 51c | 179.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 134 | 36.6%49 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…7dfcbacked Last Bullet | 46c | 139.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Last Bullet | 80c | 129.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Change The Game | 46c | 102.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Last Bullet | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Change The Game | 55c | 87.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked Change The Game | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Last Bullet | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Change The Game | 50c | 76.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Last Bullet | 46c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Last Bullet | 69c | 70.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Last Bullet | 63c | 69.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Change The Game | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -11.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Last Bullet | 42c | 61.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Change The Game | 65c | 61.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Last Bullet | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Last Bullet | 38c | 53.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Last Bullet | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Last Bullet | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…f131backed Change The Game | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 334 | 51.5%172 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Change The Game | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed Last Bullet | 48c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Change The Game | 75c | 49.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Last Bullet | 29c | 48.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Change The Game | 78c | 48.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Last Bullet | 28c | 48.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Last Bullet | 42c | 44.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…8698backed Last Bullet | 44c | 43.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Change The Game | 58c | 43.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…368dbacked Last Bullet | 41c | 43.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Last Bullet | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Change The Game | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 394 | 40.4%159 W · 235 L | +30.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…7349backed Change The Game | 52c | 38.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6342…0546backed Last Bullet | 53c | 32.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Change The Game | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…58c4backed Change The Game | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 117 | 68.4%80 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Change The Game | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba0…980fbacked Change The Game | 65c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Last Bullet | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -9.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Last Bullet | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Change The Game | 55c | 26.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -13.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…f6d2backed Change The Game | 46c | 25.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked Last Bullet | 76c | 24.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed Change The Game | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Last Bullet | 51c | 23.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Change The Game | 50c | 20.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Change The Game | 64c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Change The Game | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet (BO3) - Yuqilin Pinnacle of Battle Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: Change The Game vs Last Bullet - Map 2 WinnerLast Bullet won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.