Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37fc02c3cd6a3f837cea996b03146bb61d3c3de5a4f7bb9efab087c2b8ad2532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Nigma Galaxy, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 9,179$6,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.8 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 7,929$5,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.33 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 7,171$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.52 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 6,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 4,106$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.04 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 3,625$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.61 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 3,250$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 3,244$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.33 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 2,808$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.32 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 2,250$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 2,083$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.31 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 2,050$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.95 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 1,824$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.78 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 1,750$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 1,440$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.2 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 1,317$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 1,157$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.84 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 850$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 850$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…6d97backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 760.12$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 719.99$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 632.23$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 513.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 480$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 479.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 456.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 415.96$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…b4fabacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 400$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 391.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 389.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 314.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…7f5bbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 280.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 276$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 269.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 267$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 256.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 248.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 207.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…7fb5backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 128.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…fbfabacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 55.3%167 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…d567backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 193 | 52.3%101 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 93.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 88.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 60.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 40.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 23.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.