TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports15c7,216$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.311,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Tundra Esports12c4,474$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51547650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports75c3,975$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy27c3,250$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.5380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports13c2,136$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Nigma Galaxy32c2,013$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.9537945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Tundra Esports58c1,982$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.8436547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy25c1,750$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Nigma Galaxy36c1,460$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.2760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nigma Galaxy79c1,234$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Tundra Esports17c1,079$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9334468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy52c1,049$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.881,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Nigma Galaxy26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Tundra Esports29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2903844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Tundra Esports52c930.11$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.144149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Tundra Esports15c824.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.741,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Tundra Esports28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22410753.3%57 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy46c708.38$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3791,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Nigma Galaxy68c678.24$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.391,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Tundra Esports17c590.91$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Tundra Esports72c589.96$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.7795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports77c562.35$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.0121264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Nigma Galaxy49c547.03$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.171,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Nigma Galaxy31c524.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.6848539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Tundra Esports18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy66c499.05$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Tundra Esports17c477.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.254753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Tundra Esports76c442.11$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33620452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Tundra Esports35c404.46$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy25c376.19$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.1461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Nigma Galaxy22c368.5$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.4336343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy24c356.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.181,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy23c295.17$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.281,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Nigma Galaxy26c267.79$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.3580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Tundra Esports40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10092561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Tundra Esports16c243$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b79…a5a8backed Tundra Esports12c225$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711346%52 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy62c219.61$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.861,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Tundra Esports45c187.62$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4737223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports70c179.98$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3877941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Tundra Esports16c148$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.221,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Tundra Esports12c133.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1672637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports35c126.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4534152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Nigma Galaxy53c124.94$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.231872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports37c116.24$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Nigma Galaxy27c110.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7130255.3%167 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Nigma Galaxy60c109.53$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4868649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Tundra Esports61c105.13$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Tundra Esports37c101.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3440534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tundra Esports57c100.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.292,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Nigma Galaxy64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3666848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Tundra Esports77c99.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7765863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy80c97.1$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.421,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Tundra Esports74c95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.361745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy50c94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.841,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Nigma Galaxy66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8421333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nigma Galaxy76c87.14$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.389938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy59c82.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…d567backed Tundra Esports65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010450%52 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Nigma Galaxy61c76.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8716250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Nigma Galaxy26c60.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5816242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Tundra Esports25c59.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1942053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Nigma Galaxy26c56.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.956753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Nigma Galaxy44c54.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5544645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Tundra Esports32c54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.164547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Tundra Esports61c51.64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.530834.1%105 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Tundra Esports65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.558250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3879343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Nigma Galaxy25c48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3622538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f3…12a9backed Nigma Galaxy29c43.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8311739.3%46 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Nigma Galaxy71c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1865337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy75c39.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Tundra Esports28c37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4168345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Nigma Galaxy48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0714652.1%76 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28dd…f376backed Tundra Esports60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813653.7%73 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Tundra Esports61c25.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7517338.7%67 W · 106 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Tundra Esports69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.837851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Tundra Esports73c18.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5217146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.