Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. Team Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38138060792f5eb9dfdfab702fbb1265283a8c8b9fda06b12917fd0495480d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 9,911$7,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 9,620$4,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,251.4 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Team Falcons | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…b487backed Team Falcons | 55c | 3,969$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 2,744$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.6 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 2,250$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.5 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Team Falcons | 53c | 2,121$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.13 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Team Falcons | 54c | 2,050$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 2,013$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.71 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 1,848$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Team Falcons | 65c | 1,683$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked Team Falcons | 61c | 1,481$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Falcons | 37c | 1,391$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.19 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 1,059$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons | 54c | 985.89$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.44 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…a1fcbacked Team Falcons | 45c | 971.03$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 892.96$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 869.37$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.62 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 823$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Team Falcons | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…b15fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 712.36$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons | 55c | 622.99$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.41 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 549.95$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.59 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 506.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Xtreme Gaming | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Falcons | 55c | 463.51$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…9527backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 445.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 433.98$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.49 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Team Falcons | 47c | 416.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…b0f3backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 368.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…e9dfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 28c | 353.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 327.01$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 323.09$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 312.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…e491backed Team Falcons | 50c | 312.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons | 78c | 275$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.55 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 274.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…5eb1backed Team Falcons | 47c | 190.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…1050backed Team Falcons | 53c | 184.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Xtreme Gaming | 31c | 175.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 167.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Team Falcons | 48c | 165.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Team Falcons | 35c | 150.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 54c | 138.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Team Falcons | 53c | 138.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…1e92backed Team Falcons | 67c | 133$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Team Falcons | 75c | 132.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…8492backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 129.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons | 41c | 90.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…8002backed Team Falcons | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Team Falcons | 41c | 87.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9117backed Team Falcons | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…e4c1backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 78.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…64cfbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 77.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…4596backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Xtreme Gaming | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Team Falcons | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Team Falcons | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 44.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Team Falcons | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…78a1backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…6298backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…97dabacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.