NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382006fa6f72a855fb4bd409fe04c2ecb52d5588e791815decd8e799c31e4113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Cowboys, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Giants | 60c | 50,000$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Cowboys | 40c | 23,895$9,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,586.64 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Cowboys | 40c | 12,880$5,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,152 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cowboys | 40c | 8,678$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,478.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cowboys | 40c | 8,055$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221.84 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Giants | 60c | 5,015$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Giants | 55c | 2,497$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.65 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cowboys | 45c | 1,792$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.2 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Giants | 59c | 1,344$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.86 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cowboys | 40c | 997$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.8 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 58c | 719.5$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.19 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Cowboys | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Cowboys | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cowboys | 40c | 499.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Cowboys | 43c | 240.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cowboys | 45c | 142.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Cowboys | 47c | 112.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Giants | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Cowboys | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…700bbacked Cowboys | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…8846backed Giants | 59c | 38.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cowboys | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Giants | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Cowboys | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2554…cda9backed Cowboys | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Giants | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Giants | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)this page
- Cowboys vs. GiantsGiants won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 49.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 51.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 52.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.