NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x863de41927e255ab230e55076153540b1875e2e37d1e5c4240ed3694bd5cc5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 28,925$14,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,092.99 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 2c | 7,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,218$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.79 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 32c | 1,100$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…4d64backed Under | 49c | 979.59$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 53c | 716.98$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.98 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 391.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 49c | 353.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 320.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 212.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe251…3575backed Over | 51c | 212$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ed…7971backed Under | 50c | 212$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…c245backed Over | 51c | 211$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…1d43backed Under | 50c | 211$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Over | 45c | 210.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73a9…c189backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 30.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 27.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Over | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Over | 53c | 19.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over | 52c | 19.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 49.5this page
- Cowboys vs. GiantsGiants won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 51.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 52.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.