NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x742b2f784d1d94a2baee5b69add675d10599158549e99756938c4c26007bca94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Cowboys, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Giants | 59c | 145,281$85,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,612.71 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys | 41c | 126,353$51,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,804.68 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Cowboys | 44c | 12,554$5,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,523.76 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Cowboys | 43c | 10,000$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.44 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Giants | 56c | 9,993$5,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.83 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 57c | 6,824$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.07 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Cowboys | 44c | 4,016$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 56c | 1,472$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.68 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Cowboys | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Giants | 56c | 400$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Giants | 56c | 390$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…dd84backed Cowboys | 41c | 254.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Cowboys | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Cowboys | 42c | 131$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Cowboys | 42c | 128.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Cowboys | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Giants | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cowboys | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Giants | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Cowboys | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Cowboys | 41c | 99.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Cowboys | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Cowboys | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Giants | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Giants | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Giants | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Cowboys | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Giants | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9c…fbb7backed Giants | 57c | 26.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cowboys | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Giants | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Giants | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Giants | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Giants | 59c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)this page
- Cowboys vs. GiantsGiants won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineGiants won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 49.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 51.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 52.5Under won
- Cowboys vs. Giants: O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.