WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382fcf6fa5afb07e2044d4c939713230fedb39f4172f3c1879a0f9a8105fa6df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Feverof Aces, Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Aces | 54c | 10,135$5,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,445.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Fever | 46c | 7,742$3,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.28 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Aces | 55c | 5,116$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.39 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aces | 54c | 4,983$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,706.04 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Aces | 38c | 3,805$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.53 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Fever | 45c | 3,112$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.72 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Fever | 46c | 3,042$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Fever | 77c | 2,948$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.41 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Aces | 58c | 2,882$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.55 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Aces | 54c | 2,659$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.13 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Aces | 72c | 2,490$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.54 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Fever | 47c | 1,924$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.28 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fever | 44c | 1,593$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.11 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Aces | 51c | 1,303$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fever | 41c | 1,181$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.03 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Aces | 64c | 904.34$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.9 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fever | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.89 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fever | 45c | 846.51$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.58 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Fever | 47c | 807$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.71 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Fever | 72c | 669$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.32 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fever | 47c | 607$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.65 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Aces | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Fever | 42c | 508.79$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.11 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Aces | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Fever | 44c | 480$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.2 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 44c | 456.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.37 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Aces | 62c | 339.44$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Aces | 42c | 325.58$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 46c | 218.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fever | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fever | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae0e…6527backed Aces | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Aces | 6c | 190$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Fever | 44c | 168.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Fever | 46c | 166$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Aces | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fever | 54c | 147.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Fever | 45c | 120.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Fever | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Fever | 48c | 112.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fever | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Aces | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Fever | 45c | 77.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Aces | 24c | 70.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Fever | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Fever | 30c | 49.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aces | 43c | 46.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fever | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Aces | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Fever | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Aces | 30c | 36.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fever | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Fever | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Fever | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Fever | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cdc2backed Aces | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Fever | 73c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.