Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384091a3d5786eef785581f5a09422420b2a4347d8ee44596c430335cacde26f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,356$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.97 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Yes | 24c | 2,058$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…c32ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,424$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 74c | 1,193$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.82 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 994.27$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.69 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 76c | 871.96$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.31 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 853.9$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.04 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 711.48$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Yes | 28c | 683.43$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…f0b8backed Yes | 28c | 615.82$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 73c | 453.71$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 63c | 430.36$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 336.07$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 21c | 334.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 73c | 323.48$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 28c | 205.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 29c | 198.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 73c | 198.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 75c | 186$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 28c | 173.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 22c | 160.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 24c | 146.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 27c | 128.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 26c | 119.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 24c | 112.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…1782backed Yes | 25c | 112.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 27c | 107.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…5c17backed Yes | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 29c | 100.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 98.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Yes | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 87.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 72c | 79.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 73c | 68.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 67.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Yes | 23c | 63.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 25c | 60.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 28c | 51.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 50.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 25c | 49.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 72c | 39.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 39.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 73c | 36.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 34.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 76c | 29.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 74c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 73c | 26.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 72c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed No | 72c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 74c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 74c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 73c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.