TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa820…c265backed Yes0c18,999$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes2c2,200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No79c1,449$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.565451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No76c867.28$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9147834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes7c824.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.46725.4%17 W · 50 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed Yes54c618.49$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.493435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes15c594.16$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2858422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes10c576.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No51c513.87$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.487244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…0169backed Yes76c507.97$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.621050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7277…8bf4backed Yes2c499.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.932821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes9c399.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.124010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes62c392.7$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0183332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f22…df03backed Yes77c364.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes16c350.34$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4420631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5250…2772backed Yes31c330.02$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.812259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes30c315.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3926339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes4c314.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4211920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b8…565dbacked Yes76c288.72$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes4c280$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes75c227.78$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No50c220.84$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.312251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No32c219.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.853,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90fa…78a0backed Yes47c214.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No77c207.16$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.928176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked Yes23c175.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes65c165.49$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3310751.4%55 W · 52 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No38c163.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.291,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes63c163.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.42552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb74…83aabacked Yes9c159.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes25c158.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed87…b78abacked Yes25c155.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.842650%13 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85b8…224dbacked Yes24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a73…a631backed No69c144.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.361450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c138.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c136.59$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No66c135.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.611,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c134.63$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2184759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes17c129.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2219047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes46c124.95$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7554037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x436a…0bfabacked Yes52c116.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.31540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes30c112.45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.191,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…b44bbacked Yes48c104.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes39c103.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.286258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9e8…ec9fbacked Yes79c101.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9225119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes31c97.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.811138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed Yes53c86.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.521952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7713…5218backed No27c85.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes42c81.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.42850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No62c79.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2918727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb485…20a5backed Yes75c79.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes37c77.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.491729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f09…3f8bbacked Yes66c74.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes32c74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588e…5a21backed Yes29c68.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.481643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d6…bbaebacked Yes23c63.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb0…1b9ebacked Yes18c62.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.084252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes65c60.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3116465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x286f…82a5backed Yes51c60.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed No37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.846423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c59.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.683,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed Yes40c57.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.814325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe818…98f4backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4272…5ab0backed Yes79c51.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.52152.4%11 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c5e…9436backed Yes49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked Yes40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef5…4cc6backed Yes79c49.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick71cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7db9…5c01backed Yes31c48.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes26c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.545016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd639…0a4dbacked No50c44.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07a…e2ddbacked No65c44.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xded6…682abacked No68c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9fb…94e2backed Yes57c40.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cfe…8286backed Yes42c40.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0d…c219backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…4864backed No63c39.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…15fcbacked Yes51c39.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked No70c39.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.638250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a90…2df4backed Yes42c38.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc00a…2424backed Yes39c38.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes66c38.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.838348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No28c38.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.782,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391c…68d1backed No63c36.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.465152.9%27 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb641…9d08backed Yes65c34.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6ca2backed No64c32.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.853764.9%24 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2f…2e37backed Yes79c31.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick78cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f0…ecc0backed No65c30.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03a…439fbacked No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1518910.6%20 W · 169 L-87.5wins-0.46per pick57cpaid-84%equal weight5-0.41 edge/pick
0xcbb8…8b21backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x487d…465fbacked No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.383357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c28.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…e1d0backed Yes40c28.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.398253.7%44 W · 38 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed No66c28.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.535154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x023f…30f3backed Yes39c28.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.