Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56cdbab028ca59a673c87e2367062fb856fb9fecfc42f8e5a13e6cbded2e309e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 74c | 1,069$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.31 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 24c | 879.2$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.82 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…1f09backed Yes | 23c | 714.68$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 51c | 690.91$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 54c | 595.72$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 55c | 583.19$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.31 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f39…4c71backed Yes | 66c | 393.36$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 383.05$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 42c | 379.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 55c | 356.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 56c | 355.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 38c | 300$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…a96ebacked Yes | 67c | 299.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 27c | 279$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed No | 30c | 276.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 32c | 271.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b8…565dbacked No | 77c | 260.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 258.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 6c | 234.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 69c | 219.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 203.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…ee18backed No | 78c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 24c | 197.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 49c | 196.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 32c | 188.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 171.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 59c | 161.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b8…411fbacked Yes | 74c | 146.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 143.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked No | 10c | 143.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 48c | 130.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed No | 53c | 129.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 126.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 125.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes | 73c | 117.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…5218backed No | 78c | 111$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…3af4backed No | 78c | 109.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 78cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef5…4cc6backed No | 77c | 108.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 77c | 107.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 106.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 105.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 101.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed Yes | 40c | 101.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 100.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…14babacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 60c | 99.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 51c | 98.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…2942backed No | 19c | 94.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 59c | 88.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed Yes | 72c | 83.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 79.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 65c | 79.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked No | 78c | 76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked Yes | 62c | 75.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 53c | 75.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 68c | 70.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 54c | 70.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 76c | 70.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 50c | 70.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 34c | 69.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Yes | 49c | 66.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…fec6backed Yes | 33c | 64.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 63.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 63.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 42c | 62.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 55c | 60.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…7debbacked Yes | 57c | 60.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb9…533fbacked No | 20c | 60.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…e441backed Yes | 62c | 59.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…ac53backed Yes | 69c | 58.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…9d08backed Yes | 64c | 57.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 53c | 54.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…f83cbacked Yes | 33c | 54.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 70c | 53.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 59c | 52.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 59c | 51.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed No | 22c | 50.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…bbaebacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 35c | 49.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 61c | 48.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 55c | 47.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…0388backed No | 70c | 47.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 58c | 45.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…8463backed No | 60c | 45.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286f…82a5backed Yes | 47c | 44.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a97…6bc1backed No | 31c | 44.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…f4a6backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.