TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3a…a709backed Yes74c1,069$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.315451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes24c879.2$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.8232310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01cc…1f09backed Yes23c714.68$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No51c690.91$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.987244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed No54c595.72$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.885446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No55c583.19$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3113223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f39…4c71backed Yes66c393.36$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.39580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No44c383.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0284759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No42c379.3$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3912251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes55c356.87$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2547834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90fa…78a0backed Yes56c355.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed87…b78abacked Yes38c300$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1872650%13 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8672…a96ebacked Yes67c299.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.95650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No27c279$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7914251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5250…2772backed No30c276.87$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.312259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes32c271.92$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1726339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b8…565dbacked No77c260.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes39c258.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3483332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No6c234.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed Yes44c230$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.511920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes69c219.34$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9720631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes24c203.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.171,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35d9…ee18backed No78c200$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.76366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick79cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95cd…4f91backed Yes18c199.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.991346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes24c197.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7846423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No49c196.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked Yes32c188.97$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.973751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes45c171.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2119037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes59c161.48$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.091533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10511332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33b8…411fbacked Yes74c146.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c143.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…6a3ebacked No10c143.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.691729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed No48c130.29$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.254325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed No53c129.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.171553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c126.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No41c125.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.992,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes73c117.65$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7713…5218backed No78c111$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a3…3af4backed No78c109.85$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62425%1 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick78cpaid-68.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeef5…4cc6backed No77c108.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick71cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x365f…e1d0backed No77c107.08$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.618253.7%44 W · 38 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No32c106.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.483,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c105.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No77c105$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.151,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c101.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5595942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e7b…2c54backed Yes40c101.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.31per pick40cpaid-78.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes31c100.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.073,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53cd…14babacked No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb550…84fbbacked Yes60c99.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.211050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes51c98.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.783930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4008…2942backed No19c94.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes52c90$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8740…70f4backed Yes59c88.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.832035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb485…20a5backed Yes72c83.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes34c79.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.931,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes65c79.72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b8…224dbacked Yes66c78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.651957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…4f6cbacked No78c76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd8…4edbbacked Yes62c75.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.833652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9526…8f87backed Yes53c75.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.253941%16 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08cf…8cbcbacked No68c70.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1110751.4%55 W · 52 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes54c70.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2225119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes76c70.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.18176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes50c70.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3816242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed Yes34c69.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.911952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Yes49c66.39$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.171711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-71.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9720…fec6backed Yes33c64.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…b44bbacked No78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No37c63.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.612,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No46c63.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x436a…0bfabacked Yes42c62.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed No55c60.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.146258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x501f…7debbacked Yes57c60.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.34560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb9…533fbacked No20c60.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe867…e441backed Yes62c59.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.961060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab60…ac53backed Yes69c58.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.45650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+236.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb641…9d08backed Yes64c57.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…2061backed No53c54.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.87560%45 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaecd…f83cbacked Yes33c54.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe658…488bbacked Yes70c53.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0384…639bbacked Yes59c52.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.262240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x588e…5a21backed Yes59c51.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.051643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed No22c50.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.519937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.539541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d6…bbaebacked No47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x550c…1e1abacked No35c49.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed Yes61c48.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.235154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes55c47.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.522552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cd…0388backed No70c47.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+48.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes58c45.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.098348.2%40 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdab0…8463backed No60c45.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-35.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x286f…82a5backed Yes47c44.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a97…6bc1backed No31c44.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7a…f4a6backed Yes24c44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+90.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.