TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$530,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,805 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5afb…4511backed Under48c511,101$246,512 inLost-$246,511.845540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Over52c125,000$65,000 inWon+$60,0002867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over53c100,000$53,000 inWon+$47,00041848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Over50c60,000$29,800 inWon+$30,20059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Over53c40,000$21,200 inWon+$18,80014856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over53c34,815$18,352 inWon+$16,462.847448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over53c30,000$15,900 inWon+$14,10066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Over44c26,404$11,737 inWon+$14,666.6347144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c19,635$10,414 inWon+$9,220.169,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Over53c15,574$8,254 inWon+$7,319.787255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Over54c14,975$8,020 inWon+$6,955.4571052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over53c13,038$6,893 inWon+$6,145.212,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over48c11,642$5,588 inWon+$6,053.663,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over53c7,781$4,124 inWon+$3,657.2152460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over53c3,945$2,110 inWon+$1,834.711,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over53c2,804$1,500 inWon+$1,303.982,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Over53c2,279$1,208 inWon+$1,071.2730053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Over55c2,000$1,100 inWon+$90017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over51c1,768$901 inWon+$867.0118656.5%105 W · 81 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c1,763$864 inLost-$863.751,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Over55c550$301 inWon+$2496541.5%27 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb05e…4fcebacked Over48c461.58$222 inWon+$240.021741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under46c300$138 inLost-$13872647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Under48c199.99$96 inLost-$962552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…7942backed Over53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.684548.9%22 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over55c183$100 inWon+$83.261,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over48c169$81 inWon+$87.6759743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over54c111.11$60 inWon+$51.114841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc9…bb17backed Over56c99.99$56 inWon+$44425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over48c78$37 inWon+$40.81,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53f…b4c8backed Under50c55.7$28 inLost-$27.853762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed1…331bbacked Under56c53.57$30 inLost-$304847.9%23 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1171…ff19backed Over48c41.25$20 inWon+$21.451323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Over48c40$19 inWon+$20.818239%71 W · 111 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over56c35.98$20 inWon+$15.9811844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over52c30$16 inWon+$14.419756.3%111 W · 86 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$1029156.4%164 W · 127 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Over53c19.87$11 inWon+$9.3438853.4%207 W · 181 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.