Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386875ba2147fc49d4f33f409f81e3bf971261706fb61fd493e02858e046645e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 4c | 1,408$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 63c | 1,294$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.83 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,197$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 33c | 1,115$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.25 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 713.2$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 682.76$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 67c | 560.27$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.67 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 550.84$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed No | 46c | 516.34$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 442.04$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 426.78$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 10c | 384.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 382.84$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 336.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 329.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 5c | 281.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 270.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 74c | 247.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 229.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 8c | 221.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…136dbacked No | 48c | 209.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 197.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 193.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 37c | 189.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 58c | 186.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 53c | 179.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 39c | 165.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 154.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 40c | 149.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 18c | 147.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 41c | 146.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 132.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 128.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 127.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 126$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 125.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 124.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 124.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 19c | 124.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 48c | 123.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 122$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 121.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 121.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 108.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 104.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 101.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 100.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8843…d4c5backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 99.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 98.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 94.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 39c | 93.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 93.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 56c | 93.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 85.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 78c | 85.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 81.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 52c | 80.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 30c | 80.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 80.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 80.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 79.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…b528backed No | 65c | 76.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…750abacked Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 16c | 74.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 37c | 70.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 46c | 65.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 65.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 64.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 71c | 61.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 53.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…bd00backed Yes | 72c | 51.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 71c | 50.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 38c | 48.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 39c | 46.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 51c | 45.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 24c | 44.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 34c | 44.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 42.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 63c | 40.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 39.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…3c0cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.