Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29348cb50137158bbbc406cff1d23afe9f675497ea3e31d1bc485c8602456ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 2,157$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 11c | 1,063$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 28c | 801.54$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.65 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 13c | 779.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 67c | 771.5$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.31 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 735.21$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 682.88$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 579.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 555.38$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 7c | 414.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 12c | 407.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 324.69$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed No | 78c | 269.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 13c | 267.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 21c | 262.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 244.41$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 240.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 12c | 235$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 224.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 39c | 220.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 39c | 216.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 28c | 215.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 203.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 10c | 200.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 192$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 16c | 190.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 185.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 175.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 170.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 168.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 30c | 167.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 153.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 78c | 152.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 151.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 8c | 145.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 9c | 144.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 17c | 143$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 77c | 130.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 125.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 13c | 114.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 40c | 107.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 38c | 100.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 100.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 96.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 92.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 90.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 81.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 31c | 79.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 15c | 78.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 15c | 76.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed Yes | 19c | 76.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 75.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 68c | 73.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 35c | 63.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 30c | 60.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 19c | 56.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 70c | 50.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 28c | 49.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 73c | 46.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 69c | 44.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 25c | 43.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 28c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 38.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 46c | 36.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…94e5backed Yes | 31c | 35.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 31.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 63c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 27.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 64c | 26.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 22.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 76c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971d…19bcbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.