TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,972 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes7c2,157$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.231,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes11c1,063$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes28c801.54$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes13c779.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No67c771.5$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.3116543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No80c735.21$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c682.88$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.814,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes8c579.65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.274,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes37c555.38$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes7c414.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes12c407.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.175841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c324.69$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed No78c269.5$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.57143.7%31 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes13c267.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes21c262.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.525135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c244.41$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c240.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.12,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…2305backed Yes12c235$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.27213.9%10 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c224.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes39c220.74$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8118650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes39c216.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1520144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed Yes28c215.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c203.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.753,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes10c200.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0916724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes12c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c192$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.092,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes16c190.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1412927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes8c185.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.322,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c175.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c170.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.936,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c168.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.312,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes30c167.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.015349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c153.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.033,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No78c152.72$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c151.6$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes8c145.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes9c144.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.438845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes17c143$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.951127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes29c138$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed No77c130.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.127968.4%54 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes8c125.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes11c116$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.262,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes13c114.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2987629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes40c107.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes38c100.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.753956.4%22 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c100.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.947,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.18749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.215334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No69c96.81$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.245,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c92.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes17c90.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.341,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes13c81.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.741,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes31c79.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes15c78.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5518222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes15c76.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.456527.7%18 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x749c…6301backed Yes19c76.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes30c75.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6670741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No68c73.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7818565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9140…f62cbacked Yes35c63.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes33c61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.254740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes30c60.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9922744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.267862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes19c56.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7433962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No70c50.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8327461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e2…aab7backed Yes28c49.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No73c46.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5917759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No69c44.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9163538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb80a…6163backed Yes25c43.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.734339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9244536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No78c39.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.642,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes28c39.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.913630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No66c38.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes46c36.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No67c36.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.962,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd13…94e5backed Yes31c35.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.961414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No79c31.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.382,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No63c30.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0138454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeae4…5c60backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c27.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.742,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No64c26.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4424546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c22.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.882,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No66c21.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.222,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No76c21.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.131,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fca…b9b4backed No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.273262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No63c19.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.142,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No70c18.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.622,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No76c17.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.292,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x971d…19bcbacked No72c17.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No71c17.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9747136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6411859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.