TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes11c2,168$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2186952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes26c1,593$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.3816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c959.66$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.62,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes21c709.04$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.482,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c663.06$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.114,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c481.2$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.965,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes19c422.01$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.281850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4551…d019backed Yes28c405.85$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c395.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.311,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes9c373.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.361,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c359.69$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.93,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes21c351.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c337.33$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes26c301.1$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.344,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No69c291.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.741,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No71c279$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3163255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked No72c276.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c259.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.574,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c93…436abacked Yes15c247.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.453324.2%8 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c234.28$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32af…a7c3backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.453842.1%16 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No67c187$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7189557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes9c175.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.816832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No67c173.84$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51df…8605backed Yes26c169.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes6c165.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed Yes26c153.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407143.7%31 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c143.68$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.549,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c125.91$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.424,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes36c124.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4680130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c119.84$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c98.76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.512,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No80c93.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7525358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No62c93.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.22,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No76c88.15$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No76c86.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5421268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes36c85.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8630136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No75c83.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes31c81.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.491,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes27c80.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.812,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b04…b528backed No62c80.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.09650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No61c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c76.65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.27,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes16c75.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1840525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No63c74.87$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.866642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.628344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes33c66.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No68c65.14$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b2…615dbacked Yes39c63.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No76c62.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x971d…19bcbacked No69c62.28$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes34c57.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7118033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No64c57.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7224546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c56.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No66c53.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c52.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.342,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c51.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b88…a191backed Yes22c51.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.282441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No63c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No65c45.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.832,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes31c44.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No73c43.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8815666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No64c43.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.691861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No75c42.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6535264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes30c41.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6446457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c37.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3615…1577backed Yes32c37.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No64c33.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.11,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No78c29.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6312876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No63c29.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.887251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No72c28.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No71c27.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0321272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c27.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c25.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.932,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ae…9156backed No79c25.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+37.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2515032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c24.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No74c23.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.241,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No76c23.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.742,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c22.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.453,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c21.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No62c21.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47665.8%50 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No64c20.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.421,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c20.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.011,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.