Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38a4649a8f6fa8778084e35cb64e63118877bb6f167e398de40c1bfb13280714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof VP.Prodigy, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb877…4601backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 1,333$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.3 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 48c | 1,244$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.31 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 1,014$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.7 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 845.82$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.48 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…2330backed 4ikibamboni | 51c | 599.97$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.98 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked VP.Prodigy | 11c | 521.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 500.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.3 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 4ikibamboni | 55c | 495.81$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked 4ikibamboni | 49c | 399.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni | 57c | 393.15$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked VP.Prodigy | 46c | 384.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…0105backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 373.26$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked VP.Prodigy | 54c | 372.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 4ikibamboni | 64c | 367.56$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked VP.Prodigy | 50c | 300$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked 4ikibamboni | 73c | 239.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 65c | 232.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 226.08$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked 4ikibamboni | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…b8abbacked 4ikibamboni | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 187.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni | 68c | 162.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed 4ikibamboni | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked 4ikibamboni | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 158.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked 4ikibamboni | 75c | 147.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 93 | 65.6%61 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 119.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed 4ikibamboni | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 86.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked 4ikibamboni | 44c | 80.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked 4ikibamboni | 49c | 74.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 74.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed 4ikibamboni | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked 4ikibamboni | 49c | 52.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed 4ikibamboni | 44c | 47.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked 4ikibamboni | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed 4ikibamboni | 49c | 43.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed 4ikibamboni | 49c | 41.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed 4ikibamboni | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…920bbacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked 4ikibamboni | 76c | 38.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked 4ikibamboni | 55c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed 4ikibamboni | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…554dbacked 4ikibamboni | 75c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.