Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ebd1674833d25dca83a52f7ef7c671e04f8c5e8b73769a9b2be4da0ee00527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof VP.Prodigy, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 5,709$3,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,507 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 39c | 3,000$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.03 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 2,468$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.27 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni | 57c | 1,581$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.57 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 27c | 1,410$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.39 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked VP.Prodigy | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 4ikibamboni | 50c | 997.82$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.57 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed 4ikibamboni | 44c | 987.33$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.74 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 933.73$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.35 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 4ikibamboni | 50c | 758.16$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.45 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 750$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.5 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked 4ikibamboni | 40c | 727.95$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.77 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 700$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.68 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 4ikibamboni | 42c | 587.3$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 4ikibamboni | 39c | 500$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.42 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked VP.Prodigy | 52c | 499.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked 4ikibamboni | 46c | 427.75$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.98 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked VP.Prodigy | 26c | 382.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni | 59c | 370.05$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.33 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 47c | 343.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked 4ikibamboni | 45c | 335.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 299.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed 4ikibamboni | 50c | 286.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 264.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked VP.Prodigy | 43c | 186.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed 4ikibamboni | 33c | 129.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed 4ikibamboni | 36c | 120.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 119.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed VP.Prodigy | 14c | 106.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed 4ikibamboni | 70c | 94.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 91.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed 4ikibamboni | 41c | 87.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 86.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked VP.Prodigy | 39c | 84.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…933abacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked 4ikibamboni | 46c | 79.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked 4ikibamboni | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed 4ikibamboni | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed 4ikibamboni | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 42.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed 4ikibamboni | 36c | 39.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…1e38backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 30.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 30.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.