Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe465d19995341f8d5779b77e8b762906d4a679586180fe5bb6f546e5091affc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof VP.Prodigy, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 4,303$2,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 41c | 2,044$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.95 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 1,620$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.87 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 22c | 1,300$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.88 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 1,100$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.99 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni | 50c | 1,075$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.52 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 4ikibamboni | 80c | 1,052$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.16 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 999.97$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.48 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 4ikibamboni | 55c | 921.66$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.66 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy | 15c | 671.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 4ikibamboni | 38c | 624.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.81 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 4ikibamboni | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 481.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed VP.Prodigy | 14c | 396$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 393.32$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.48 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 52c | 381.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 309.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni | 54c | 275.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.36 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni | 71c | 178.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 4ikibamboni | 42c | 174.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked 4ikibamboni | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed 4ikibamboni | 42c | 135.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed 4ikibamboni | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 90.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 4ikibamboni | 39c | 79.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 65.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 59.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed 4ikibamboni | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed 4ikibamboni | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked VP.Prodigy | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed 4ikibamboni | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked 4ikibamboni | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 15.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.