Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Pavlyuchenkova vs. Osaka (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d14eb7086a4673017cc23901026fc86a5c0a8cb3e248038596dd8a83a9e674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pavlyuchenkovaof Pavlyuchenkova, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Osaka | 60c | 2,386$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.27 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 23c | 2,180$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.74 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Osaka | 65c | 1,461$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.93 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Osaka | 72c | 1,451$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.75 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Osaka | 66c | 1,062$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.11 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…4267backed Pavlyuchenkova | 57c | 1,029$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.36 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e8…e456backed Pavlyuchenkova | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…f52cbacked Osaka | 58c | 833.97$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.86 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 699.97$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.98 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Pavlyuchenkova | 35c | 649.54$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.54 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…9e63backed Osaka | 61c | 635$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Pavlyuchenkova | 35c | 634.86$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.86 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Osaka | 60c | 567.3$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.07 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Osaka | 66c | 560.01$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.44 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 48c | 552$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Osaka | 41c | 489.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Osaka | 67c | 485.45$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Osaka | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Pavlyuchenkova | 45c | 373.57$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.94 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…9fdfbacked Osaka | 61c | 365$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Osaka | 50c | 356.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Pavlyuchenkova | 57c | 351.08$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.89 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Osaka | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Osaka | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Pavlyuchenkova | 34c | 290.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pavlyuchenkova | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 251.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Osaka | 52c | 246.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pavlyuchenkova | 35c | 200.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Pavlyuchenkova | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Osaka | 66c | 178.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Osaka | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Pavlyuchenkova | 34c | 118$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 108$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Osaka | 48c | 105.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Pavlyuchenkova | 22c | 101.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 96.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0455…e25abacked Osaka | 43c | 92.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Pavlyuchenkova | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Pavlyuchenkova | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…3f3ebacked Pavlyuchenkova | 28c | 66.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 33c | 59.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Osaka | 68c | 55.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Pavlyuchenkova | 27c | 53.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Pavlyuchenkova | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Osaka | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…7084backed Pavlyuchenkova | 48c | 24.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…21f9backed Osaka | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.