Fifa International · resolved market
Luis Díaz: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3907bcc6f798ad3c58604fe680d124f81cbf64746613364b8ffa20bb13c6653f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 54c | 3,092$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.7 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 43c | 2,137$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.11 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 55c | 847.45$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.94 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Yes | 56c | 178.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 44c | 158.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked No | 55c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…1c02backed Yes | 48c | 69.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 44c | 54.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 45c | 50.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 785 | 59.7%469 W · 316 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…8762backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +54%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…1a4bbacked No | 55c | 47.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +12.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 381 | 55.4%211 W · 170 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luis Díaz: 4+ shotsthis page
- Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antoine Semenyo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shotsYes won
- Antoine Semenyo: 4+ shotsNo won
- Iñaki Williams: 1+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 1+ assistsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 1+ goalsNo won
- James Rodríguez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jordan Ayew: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jordan Ayew: 2+ assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ shotsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 3+ shotsYes won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ assistsYes won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assistsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 3+ shotsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 4+ shotsNo won
- Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ goalsNo won
- Richard Ríos: 3+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.