Luis Suárez: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f77745cdb1c494ebd11e8259d5b0fb6c15187c01c08a4f50a17d75be4d2650

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,137 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked No	71c	5,089$3,595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,493.5	160	65%104 W · 56 L	+16.7wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes	19c	1,436$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.74	470	32.8%154 W · 316 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes	30c	1,250$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.75	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes	29c	1,189$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.72	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes	34c	1,019$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.36	112	56.3%63 W · 49 L	+9.5wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No	66c	496.34$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.71	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	375	26.1%98 W · 277 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…68f9backed Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	30c	350$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	206	38.8%80 W · 126 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…0c75backed Yes	28c	336.96$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.35	160	42.5%68 W · 92 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes	11c	250.94$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6606…09fabacked Yes	11c	242.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	52	25%13 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	21c	220.02$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.64	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes	29c	200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked No	72c	191.74$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.69	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8542…9405backed Yes	35c	171.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5d…fa9bbacked Yes	23c	161.83$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+5.4wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed No	72c	145.22$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.66	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	27c	122.31$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec35…d05dbacked Yes	35c	115.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	13c	107.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Yes	28c	90$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	78c	89.39$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.93	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	331	23.6%78 W · 253 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…cfb4backed Yes	15c	70$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-5.0wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	338	47.9%162 W · 176 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x817f…01f4backed Yes	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	67c	26.07$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed No	67c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.25	118	41.5%49 W · 69 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No	79c	23.91$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.11	190	64.2%122 W · 68 L	+13.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No	70c	17.03$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.11	73	68.5%50 W · 23 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Luis Suárez: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event