James Rodríguez: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33be1445d64961d66c595d589891490f1cff1302714ea9052658c7cdaf0d993

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,121 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed No	78c	3,253$2,535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.3	771	52.8%407 W · 364 L	+17.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes	22c	1,136$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	278	20.1%56 W · 222 L	-17.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	22c	1,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed No	79c	349$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.29	399	51.6%206 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	21c	251$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.71	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	22c	250$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	206	38.8%80 W · 126 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x494e…d3dbbacked Yes	25c	250$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	389	24.4%95 W · 294 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked Yes	23c	250$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No	77c	249$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.61	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	75c	234.5$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.23	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes	22c	227.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	375	26.1%98 W · 277 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	79c	177.62$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.1	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	22c	114.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	23c	112.26$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.82	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	20c	106.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	22c	104.55$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	481	47.8%230 W · 251 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61f…c6a6backed No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	128	75.8%97 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No	77c	93.45$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.49	135	56.3%76 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes	12c	84.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes	24c	78.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba7b…91f5backed Yes	24c	62.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	261	44.8%117 W · 144 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	72c	61.99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	210	58.1%122 W · 88 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	75c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No	78c	15.28$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.36	73	68.5%50 W · 23 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	66cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

James Rodríguez: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event