Luis Díaz: 1+ assists

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0b08fb3fd4074e92fbf5dbe98f2bfe176661213acc1641699895b9b1d6ac26

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,003 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe524…d34fbacked No	76c	1,481$1,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.43	145	53.8%78 W · 67 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed No	63c	1,439$908 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.91	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	31c	1,313$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.76	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	71c	1,146$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.14	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	46c	1,050$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.03	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes	24c	1,042$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	278	20.1%56 W · 222 L	-17.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No	75c	531.5$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.9	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	24c	417.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	69c	404.37$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.42	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6faf…de48backed Yes	30c	336.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	202	24.8%50 W · 152 L	-15.8wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	75c	289.04$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.26	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	56c	269.08$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.18	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked No	20c	267.57$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.23	451	45%203 W · 248 L	+22.3wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked No	77c	250$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.5	132	61.4%81 W · 51 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	23c	250$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e26…8991backed Yes	25c	205.4$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	161	36%58 W · 103 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61f…c6a6backed No	75c	179$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.75	128	75.8%97 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked Yes	24c	169.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	64c	139$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.51	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Yes	24c	132.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.45	452	54.6%247 W · 205 L	+13.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	25c	120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad5b…d645backed Yes	79c	99.29$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.09	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3c…dc1dbacked Yes	25c	85.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b42…8086backed Yes	63c	79.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe82c…cc70backed Yes	25c	79.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	80c	79.68$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.01	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1c…02eabacked Yes	52c	48.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	66	71.2%47 W · 19 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8704…566cbacked No	44c	44$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	65	84.6%55 W · 10 L	+11.4wins	+0.18per pick	67cpaid	+29%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcb0b…4817backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	258	41.1%106 W · 152 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes	47c	24.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	205	61%125 W · 80 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	78c	18.22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.07	198	62.1%123 W · 75 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Luis Díaz: 1+ assists

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event