Luis Díaz: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ecbed15214cb8d86aafa2f60f1150cf96c8f5972d6061e48ae884aca11e894

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,955 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc28c…36f3backed Yes	9c	6,544$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589	90	17.8%16 W · 74 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4362…9e47backed Yes	9c	5,556$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48d…a64dbacked Yes	10c	5,046$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	302	20.2%61 W · 241 L	-15.6wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9e7…377dbacked Yes	8c	1,296$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.85	92	53.3%49 W · 43 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76c…dc83backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	160	16.3%26 W · 134 L	-11.0wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd003…0113backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…ce41backed Yes	11c	500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.44	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5282…38c6backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	118	28%33 W · 85 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed Yes	11c	374.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	206	30.6%63 W · 143 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a34…c216backed Yes	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	87	31%27 W · 60 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	9c	282.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.91	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca15…0d5ebacked Yes	9c	177.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	72	22.2%16 W · 56 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	10c	135.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a4…5e8fbacked Yes	11c	98.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Luis Díaz: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event