Music · resolved market
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391f8e2287a431b08764937d861d947067f11039f6d14af2ddff85f2056dfbe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 7c | 4,900$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…74e6backed Yes | 7c | 3,571$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 3,171$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,146$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 2,072$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,554$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f7…27d2backed Yes | 2c | 899.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 2c | 745.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 3c | 635.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +1,062.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 4c | 555.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +418.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…3236backed Yes | 4c | 523.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 488.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 3c | 372.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 256.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes | 6c | 247.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 4c | 238.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes | 8c | 235.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will All My Love (Coldplay) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will DAISIES (Justin Bieber) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Never Too Late (Elton John and Brandi Carlile) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will The Subway (Chappell Roan) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Timeless (The Weeknd feat. Playboi Carti) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.