Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Natsuho Arakawa vs Maiko Uchijima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3941d5652f669b31013063b77942274c3205b528be97e33f06b43f69de07ac7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuho Arakawaof Natsuho Arakawa, Maiko Uchijima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd898…a47dbacked Maiko Uchijima | 28c | 1,743$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf983…39a0backed Natsuho Arakawa | 34c | 1,480$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.9 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Maiko Uchijima | 39c | 1,108$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.72 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…51b3backed Maiko Uchijima | 58c | 601.42$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 353 | 60.9%215 W · 138 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Maiko Uchijima | 54c | 507.12$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Natsuho Arakawa | 62c | 409.24$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…2d85backed Maiko Uchijima | 55c | 309.09$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Maiko Uchijima | 32c | 308.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b92…4f18backed Maiko Uchijima | 76c | 293.54$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.74 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Natsuho Arakawa | 28c | 290.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.15 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Maiko Uchijima | 37c | 236.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Natsuho Arakawa | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 256 | 33.6%86 W · 170 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Maiko Uchijima | 15c | 227.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Maiko Uchijima | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 523 | 41.5%217 W · 306 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Maiko Uchijima | 72c | 171.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 68c | 160.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Natsuho Arakawa | 45c | 127.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Natsuho Arakawa | 67c | 124.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maiko Uchijima | 9c | 121.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Maiko Uchijima | 14c | 106.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Maiko Uchijima | 29c | 101.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…c0bcbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 29c | 99.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Natsuho Arakawa | 70c | 94.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Maiko Uchijima | 48c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Natsuho Arakawa | 28c | 79.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Natsuho Arakawa | 43c | 78.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…1aabbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…757abacked Natsuho Arakawa | 62c | 60.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…147fbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 53c | 58.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Maiko Uchijima | 72c | 57.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Natsuho Arakawa | 65c | 54.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Maiko Uchijima | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…eee5backed Natsuho Arakawa | 63c | 44.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…e6fcbacked Maiko Uchijima | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Maiko Uchijima | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…d276backed Natsuho Arakawa | 73c | 32.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Maiko Uchijima | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Maiko Uchijima | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…64b4backed Maiko Uchijima | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Maiko Uchijima | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…2f58backed Maiko Uchijima | 56c | 25.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Maiko Uchijima | 50c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Maiko Uchijima | 71c | 21.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…9b44backed Natsuho Arakawa | 66c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Maiko Uchijima | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Natsuho Arakawa | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.