NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x396393071ebc4b8778f7a042157abacaa48eb514e5747846e722259453dfcb35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Hornets | 51c | 28,071$14,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,315.98 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Magic | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 49c | 15,437$7,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,502.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Magic | 51c | 15,282$7,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,505.88 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Magic | 49c | 10,664$5,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,410.61 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Magic | 52c | 7,315$3,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,512.8 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hornets | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 46c | 2,602$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.56 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Magic | 49c | 1,379$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.28 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 46c | 1,367$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.82 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Hornets | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 48c | 1,132$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f7…fb38backed Magic | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hornets | 47c | 745$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.15 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 47c | 640$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 52c | 471.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Magic | 49c | 352$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Magic | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 47c | 230.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Magic | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Magic | 48c | 89.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Magic | 53c | 83.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Magic | 52c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Magic | 52c | 78.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hornets | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Hornets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Magic | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Magic | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- Magic vs. HornetsMagic won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.