NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e2a3c0db437bc05af227ea79338fc55a0430204cdaa642583b60c525b8c515

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2635…5408backed Under	53c	15,578$8,256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,321.77	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Over	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,700	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	9,944$4,808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,136	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Over	52c	6,000$3,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,120	202	48%97 W · 105 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2801…4691backed Under	46c	5,000$2,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,700	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Over	49c	3,715$1,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,815.04	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c4…cdb5backed Over	54c	2,032$1,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4aa…5cfdbacked Over	54c	1,634$882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	1,203$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.8	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb46…2d96backed Over	54c	1,057$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x523d…e405backed Over	54c	915$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d7…ae2dbacked Under	46c	858$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.32	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	52c	696.96$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.13	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Under	54c	500$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	313	47%147 W · 166 L	-14.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Over	50c	323.39$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.6	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Over	62c	320.2$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	50c	197.48$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.4	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b1…f26fbacked Over	54c	170$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	40c	158$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.8	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2791…2791backed Over	51c	150$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	47c	150$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	54c	95$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.7	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over	50c	70.94$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.27	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8abf…fbcbbacked Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6465…8a34backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	49c	39.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…eb70backed Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf120…802abacked Over	55c	24.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ad…7e4abacked Under	46c	24.51$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ece…a0d6backed Over	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2316…8a24backed Over	55c	18.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event