NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47492b64effcdf31fd91d4b307e92f98c61b237ee04e00568421cf4c829142ba

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $550,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $551,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $550,775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2635…5408backed Under	51c	536,957$274,814 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262,142.54	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Over	48c	175,599$85,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85,046.29	192	49.5%95 W · 97 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Over	48c	123,110$59,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59,092.8	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over	49c	52,944$26,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,001	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Over	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over	49c	19,400$9,556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,556	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over	51c	19,386$9,887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,886.99	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	48c	18,029$8,684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,684.39	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Over	49c	17,837$8,742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,742.26	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Over	49c	14,327$7,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,022.93	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	50c	14,000$7,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,016	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	51c	11,229$5,724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,723.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over	49c	10,289$5,054 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,054.22	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Over	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,900	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over	51c	7,000$3,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,570	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over	49c	3,600$1,764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,764	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over	54c	3,493$1,901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900.77	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	50c	3,463$1,727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,726.76	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	49c	3,460$1,687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,686.96	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	50c	2,115$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.68	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Over	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	85	55.3%47 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Over	50c	2,000$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Over	49c	1,500$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Over	50c	1,200$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeac5…2003backed Over	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over	51c	670.59$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	51c	469$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.19	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	42c	440.02$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.84	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Over	56c	335$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.6	202	48%97 W · 105 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68fe…8792backed Under	45c	300$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	39c	294.44$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.87	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Over	65c	291$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.15	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over	55c	286$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.88	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b5e…b6dfbacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7439…40d2backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	248	44%109 W · 139 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2984…0407backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c0…93fdbacked Over	49c	193.63$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	51c	150$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	51c	120$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.2	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	54c	109.01$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.34	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed9e…f5f1backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	215	48.4%104 W · 111 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Over	49c	91.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-7.6wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	48c	79$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.22	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Over	52c	70$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	122	51.6%63 W · 59 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Under	44c	65$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.4	109	45%49 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	54c	65$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef68…9cdfbacked Over	52c	53.85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Over	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Over	69c	49.39$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.91	482	55%265 W · 217 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Over	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6db…fc65backed Over	51c	29.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event