NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016bf6a49b214f30f97e2a8038b545580ed247191122ee29cc902f709960a898

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Magic, Hornets
Resolved: Oct 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $92,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $102,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,710 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2c57…c94dbacked Hornets	51c	44,278$22,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,581.75	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Magic	49c	30,000$14,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,300	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hornets	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Magic	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Magic	49c	7,186$3,521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,665.63	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic	48c	5,953$2,857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,095.42	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Hornets	52c	5,769$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+39%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bd7…8124backed Magic	48c	5,594$2,685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,908.88	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Magic	49c	4,820$2,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,458.2	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523d…e405backed Magic	48c	4,813$2,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,502.76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb09…e2f4backed Magic	48c	2,743$1,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,426.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Magic	48c	2,661$1,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,384.71	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hornets	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9827…e5ffbacked Magic	49c	1,850$907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$943.5	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c4…cdb5backed Hornets	52c	1,532$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.64	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Hornets	52c	1,500$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic	48c	1,458$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$758.33	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb46…2d96backed Hornets	52c	1,312$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	47c	1,185$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$632.58	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d7…ae2dbacked Hornets	52c	874$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.48	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e16…991abacked Hornets	52c	819$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd883…163fbacked Hornets	52c	815$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Hornets	51c	800$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	124	51.6%64 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Magic	49c	800$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Magic	46c	794.87$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.23	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…d341backed Hornets	52c	786$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1122…0f70backed Hornets	52c	782$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4aa…5cfdbacked Hornets	52c	751$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd584…25dfbacked Hornets	52c	751$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.52	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ac…e6c9backed Hornets	52c	751$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ea…7691backed Hornets	52c	687$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88d8…4b55backed Hornets	52c	666$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.32	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Hornets	52c	653.85$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d9d…7149backed Hornets	52c	576$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ac8fbacked Hornets	52c	527$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd0…6b24backed Hornets	52c	417$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.84	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hornets	54c	403$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.05	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	46c	390$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.6	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Magic	47c	342.27$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.4	96	50%48 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic	48c	260$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.2	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hornets	52c	250$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacc7…0769backed Hornets	52c	234$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.68	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5105…446dbacked Hornets	52c	216$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.32	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Magic	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Magic	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	191	49.7%95 W · 96 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Hornets	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb711…4b2ebacked Hornets	52c	157$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.64	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b98…ed81backed Hornets	52c	153$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Magic	49c	151.62$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.62	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b1…f26fbacked Hornets	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Hornets	54c	149.76$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.87	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2801…4691backed Hornets	52c	134$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.68	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Magic	44c	103$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.68	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Hornets	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0647…da66backed Hornets	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Hornets	50c	70.62$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.31	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Hornets	54c	61$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.94	109	45%49 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8abf…fbcbbacked Hornets	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5233…aef7backed Magic	49c	58.14$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Hornets	53c	53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Magic	46c	49.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdba…3dedbacked Magic	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Magic	46c	36.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.81	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Hornets	54c	33.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe941…0a95backed Hornets	53c	33.24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Magic	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…8492backed Hornets	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b2…c5ebbacked Hornets	54c	23.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	49cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0d8…abccbacked Magic	49c	20.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Magic	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cb…4b8cbacked Hornets	53c	19.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…93acbacked Hornets	53c	19.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d7…d530backed Hornets	54c	19.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x29e7…fb4fbacked Hornets	54c	19.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event