NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaf7fd178a14606a20910fbdd2269cd596fb131fe58f4154532b515861d42847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 52c | 162,901$84,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,604.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Over | 48c | 50,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 48c | 50,000$24,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,000 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 36,786$18,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,857.87 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Under | 51c | 28,906$14,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,252.37 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 49c | 26,104$12,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,790.74 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 24,567$11,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,774.83 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 23,356$11,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,551.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 7,359$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.9 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 3,374$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.89 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 48c | 3,060$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.99 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 1,805$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 47c | 984.91$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.91 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…ddecbacked Over | 49c | 977.55$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 679$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.71 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…ec98backed Under | 53c | 513.21$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…c986backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 74c | 169$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 30c | 169$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 46c | 30.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 28.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…8a34backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5this page
- Magic vs. HornetsMagic won
- Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.