MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39b745b2904bca95dc0bfb3501e5918028ad516ba5a9214cee3a54f06dd571b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 47c | 4,274$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 3,263$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 64c | 1,789$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.91 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 1,598$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 517.2$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.25 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 340.45$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 41c | 296$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 5c | 286.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 60c | 239$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 47c | 203.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 147.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 39c | 144$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 105.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 62c | 74.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 40c | 73.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 48.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 49c | 44.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 56c | 28.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 61c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.