MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03b64b8d10c9ba3d2cf7ed77ecf79581e7f147123a950d07dc65670494247e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 4,076$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.54 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 63c | 3,482$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 2,844$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 67c | 2,076$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.62 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 67c | 823.62$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.83 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 619.58$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 520$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.25 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Houston Astros | 5c | 349$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 313.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.63 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 269.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.56 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Chicago White Sox | 25c | 239$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Houston Astros | 16c | 199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 197.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 197.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked Chicago White Sox | 25c | 187.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 75c | 187.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Houston Astros | 67c | 101.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Chicago White Sox | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.