MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d8613dde3cd33c5bd929612cb0fdd070845ee7981e664cbaa6269228f0ecd72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 64c | 220,114$141,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141,556.56 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 115,536$40,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,545.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 35c | 62,388$21,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,552.29 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 38c | 13,158$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,157.89 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 12,169$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,544.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 8,041$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,063.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 35c | 7,500$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,875 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 2,070$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 799.15$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 46c | 664.59$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.76 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…18e7backed Under | 61c | 400.49$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 344$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 304.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 46c | 263.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 198.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…4c4abacked Under | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Over | 53c | 35.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 31.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 63c | 31.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.