MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee56b93d01e5fd9e6c0f65781bd04a8a31051b8ba49d5249d16612631f1e3bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 42c | 5,636$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,243.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 5,500$3,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 1,411$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 29c | 1,083$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 34c | 1,024$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 65c | 939.86$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 600.3$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.63 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 66c | 398$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.69 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 64c | 392$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 375.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.31 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 333.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 256.54$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 31c | 212.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Houston Astros | 65c | 144$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 52c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros | 31c | 86.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Houston Astros | 59c | 75.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 56c | 71.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 58.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 58.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Houston Astros | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 56c | 38.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.