Music · resolved market
Will "This & That" - Stray Kids first week album sales be between 320k and 360k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c51a412b6df895af2e19d55eea9a2ee16b1f317ca85d8c21af08da306ae2e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 59c | 558.3$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 34c | 425.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…82a1backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 299.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…08aebacked No | 66c | 284.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 57c | 261$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 199.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 22c | 122.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 88.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…bdeebacked No | 78c | 42.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 41.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 48c | 40.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 68c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "This & That" - Stray Kids first week album sales be between 320k and 360k?this page
- Will "This & That" - Stray Kids first week album sales be 360k or more?Yes won
- Will "This & That" - Stray Kids first week album sales be between 240k and 280k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.