MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c784bfb87160c3024d1c720a0f2c2b59bd4cdc741e0972b40732b9f53eb5f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Twins, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Twins | 11c | 17,733$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.37 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rays | 75c | 10,616$8,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.44 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Twins | 25c | 9,997$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.33 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…398cbacked Twins | 8c | 8,963$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.76 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Twins | 51c | 5,699$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.63 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Twins | 53c | 5,129$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.03 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Twins | 51c | 4,127$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.64 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rays | 48c | 4,000$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.41 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 20c | 2,847$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.9 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Rays | 45c | 2,150$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.49 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Twins | 53c | 2,090$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Rays | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…5c4ebacked Twins | 37c | 1,683$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.65 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Twins | 54c | 1,643$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.24 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Twins | 25c | 1,091$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.41 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rays | 47c | 745$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Twins | 28c | 687.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Twins | 27c | 670$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.13 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Rays | 49c | 535$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Twins | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Rays | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Rays | 45c | 477.16$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.55 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…76c1backed Twins | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -16.8wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rays | 47c | 444.88$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.56 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Twins | 54c | 384.81$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Rays | 31c | 367$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.94 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Twins | 21c | 330.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Rays | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Rays | 53c | 284.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 55c | 253$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Twins | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Twins | 19c | 243.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Rays | 48c | 228.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Rays | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rays | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 53c | 188.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Twins | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rays | 37c | 154.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Twins | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 575 | 45.9%264 W · 311 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Rays | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 239 | 38.5%92 W · 147 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Rays | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 182 | 43.4%79 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Rays | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 171 | 39.2%67 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Rays | 46c | 98.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Rays | 40c | 89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 340 | 51.2%174 W · 166 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Twins | 56c | 79.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Twins | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…6afdbacked Rays | 64c | 50.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…e9c1backed Twins | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…cb45backed Rays | 36c | 46.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…ecfebacked Rays | 55c | 43.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 274 | 58.8%161 W · 113 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Rays | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…0149backed Twins | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Twins | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Rays | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…b12bbacked Rays | 50c | 32.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rays | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Rays | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…edb0backed Twins | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…3237backed Twins | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…ba8cbacked Rays | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…f4f6backed Rays | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed Rays | 68c | 18.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…1871backed Twins | 55c | 18.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.