Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39cb3574b3a79b26f0aa828d8730f5345c8e38d56ec9b6ca9455e94ee36e6579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 460.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 32c | 346.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 35c | 265.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…fe54backed Yes | 27c | 216.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 36c | 139.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 138.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 135.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 72c | 113.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 106.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 98.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 93.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 12c | 91.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 73c | 84.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 35c | 72.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 35c | 63.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 48.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 47.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 64c | 45.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 42.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 32c | 40.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 64c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.