Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc183dc68f57c1b6b15a89ce142945b74e015fbc69b72bb0669607f329f8289b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 63c | 796.84$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 11c | 393.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 5c | 255.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 80c | 239.52$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 229.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0b…d59abacked No | 10c | 153.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 143.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 136.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 33c | 133.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 21c | 113.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 106.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 88.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 62c | 86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 85.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 43c | 77.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 52.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 50.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 47.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 57c | 47.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 46.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 56c | 38.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…b370backed No | 30c | 37.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…293cbacked Yes | 64c | 37.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ad…a131backed Yes | 73c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…bab7backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…3965backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.