Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39dd2c5a98f90bdc4bf945b29003ba91127134b5a58e997bbc7c9cc0983f5b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mexicoof Portugal, Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Portugal | 10c | 5,468$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.11 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mexico | 74c | 2,598$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.02 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Portugal | 26c | 1,122$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.73 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Portugal | 28c | 1,002$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Portugal | 29c | 661.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…3f78backed Mexico | 71c | 661.56$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…23c3backed Mexico | 77c | 461.76$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…d815backed Portugal | 23c | 461.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Portugal | 16c | 459.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mexico | 72c | 423.56$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…15d0backed Mexico | 72c | 294.9$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Portugal | 28c | 284.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 181 | 28.2%51 W · 130 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Portugal | 26c | 277.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Portugal | 27c | 274.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Portugal | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Portugal | 28c | 222.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Portugal | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Portugal | 29c | 211.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Portugal | 28c | 176.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Portugal | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Portugal | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Portugal | 28c | 131.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Portugal | 24c | 124.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Portugal | 28c | 123.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mexico | 72c | 120.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Portugal | 28c | 117.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Portugal | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Portugal | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Portugal | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…ccd1backed Portugal | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Mexico | 72c | 82.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Mexico | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Portugal | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Mexico | 71c | 62.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Portugal | 28c | 56.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…e483backed Portugal | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Mexico | 74c | 48.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…a13cbacked Portugal | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Mexico | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 117 | 75.2%88 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Mexico | 75c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbc…4572backed Portugal | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Mexico | 74c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Mexico | 77c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Mexico | 75c | 17.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed Mexico | 74c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)this page
- Mexico vs. Portugal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.