Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075c7731e9eb4251d3dd3afaea02cfcff5da828379d6e8ccfe2693f06eb9c4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 2,662$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.99 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 1,021$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.11 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Over | 32c | 657.73$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 636.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 31c | 503.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 214 | 44.9%96 W · 118 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 31c | 320.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 5c | 265.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 68c | 256.53$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 32c | 195.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 177.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 69c | 146.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 68c | 128.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 122.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Over | 31c | 90.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 29c | 74.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 69c | 64.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4c…24c3backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 67c | 55.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…83e4backed Over | 33c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 31c | 45.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 38.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed Over | 33c | 32.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 32c | 31.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 69c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 70c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 341 | 44.3%151 W · 190 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…c721backed Under | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…3ba4backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5this page
- Mexico vs. Portugal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.