Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e1a86bdf4db0e9a228c7db455396e180eba223ce31553adfb79a9eeada2d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 2,553$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 375.41$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 256.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 34c | 202.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 191.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 175.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 161.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 159.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 49c | 154.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 152$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 146$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 117.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…8316backed Yes | 40c | 110.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 58c | 104.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 104.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 100.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 100.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 47c | 91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 86.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 81.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 76.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 76.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 70.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 66.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 60.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 54c | 57.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 54.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 42c | 53.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 48.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 43.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 41.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 40.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…8c7ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 55c | 34.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 32.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 29.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 63c | 25.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 62c | 25.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 21.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 77c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 77c | 13.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.