Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6519dbd3922d3238247b65f7fa62498f3a3c6d719051a6af3915c9c6e5afe35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 644.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 405.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 250.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 155.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 121.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 121.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 73c | 115.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 103.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 100.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 12c | 93.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 83.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 76.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 75.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 72.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 60.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 80c | 59.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 36c | 56.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 53.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 21.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 17.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.