MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f5e5ff64f8b9d8ddf0ef6f56c0f2aabeb09539638f6d7cc6d50178ab117d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 4,686$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 2,238$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 1,610$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.88 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 1,312$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.1 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 1,049$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 847.96$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.53 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 499.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 409.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 300.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 188.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 152.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 146.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 144.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 130.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 117.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 70.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 70.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 67.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 49.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 43.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…a0bdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 23.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.