MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95dc2e27678516201b791166e92cf943b97dc39082e0f3ace8a9b7c93f5059f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 5,585$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 2,629$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.85 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 1,511$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 1,237$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 904$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.61 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 885$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.6 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 644.75$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.46 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 627.88$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 619.29$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.94 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 596.28$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 561.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 525$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 500.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 18c | 499.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 469.39$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 387.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 367$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Minnesota Twins | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 10c | 327$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 235.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 226.24$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 211$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 208.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 205.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 204.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 188.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 137$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…6d0abacked Minnesota Twins | 14c | 134.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 130.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 130.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 123.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Minnesota Twins | 9c | 113.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 106.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Minnesota Twins | 19c | 105.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 89.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 20c | 87.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 86.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 85.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 85.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 76.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 69.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 64.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 49.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…a0bdbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 25c | 44.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 43.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 41.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 41.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 38.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 35.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 26.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 26.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 25.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 21.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…2d0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.