MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f7741fde9bf3f13df1a7949d395e7a5d45943c8811503d94dfe00efba68b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 50c | 884.8$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.4 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 779.3$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.72 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 741.96$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 726.9$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 75c | 483$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 15c | 392.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…dd88backed Over | 48c | 291$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 231$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 213.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 194.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 187.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…6d0abacked Over | 70c | 167.07$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 52c | 156.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 124.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 119.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 67.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 35c | 56.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 49.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 53c | 46.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 51c | 34.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 28.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 52c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 58c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.