Tennis · resolved market
ITF Hechingen: Julia Stusek vs Paula Cembranos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1ebec54d90ef9a385bf23c87928f619c8668a26a5b961362f094b3b6689de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Julia Stusekof Julia Stusek, Paula Cembranos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Julia Stusek | 74c | 3,465$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Paula Cembranos | 21c | 3,105$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.89 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Julia Stusek | 69c | 1,186$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.85 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Paula Cembranos | 52c | 674$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.31 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Paula Cembranos | 21c | 386.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Paula Cembranos | 30c | 350.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Paula Cembranos | 49c | 275.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Paula Cembranos | 62c | 271.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed Paula Cembranos | 10c | 249.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Julia Stusek | 78c | 237.11$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paula Cembranos | 9c | 185.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Paula Cembranos | 19c | 158.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Julia Stusek | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Julia Stusek | 57c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Paula Cembranos | 15c | 86.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Paula Cembranos | 62c | 80.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Paula Cembranos | 29c | 79.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Paula Cembranos | 21c | 77.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Paula Cembranos | 21c | 72.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Julia Stusek | 78c | 67.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Julia Stusek | 80c | 67.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Paula Cembranos | 22c | 64.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Paula Cembranos | 22c | 64.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Paula Cembranos | 24c | 62.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Paula Cembranos | 35c | 61.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Paula Cembranos | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Paula Cembranos | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Paula Cembranos | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 414 | 40.3%167 W · 247 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Paula Cembranos | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Julia Stusek | 74c | 47.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7982backed Paula Cembranos | 24c | 46.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Paula Cembranos | 28c | 44.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Julia Stusek | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Paula Cembranos | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Julia Stusek | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Julia Stusek | 69c | 30.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Julia Stusek | 69c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Julia Stusek | 66c | 27.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 331 | 65%215 W · 116 L | +22.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Paula Cembranos | 62c | 26.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Julia Stusek | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Julia Stusek | 79c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Julia Stusek | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Julia Stusek | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Julia Stusek | 72c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Julia Stusek | 76c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 353 | 57.2%202 W · 151 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Julia Stusek | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.