Tennis · resolved market
Segovia: Akira Santillan vs Mert Alkaya
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a386263109b82a74ab4b1846e4f025f14bcd6c55bacfa834824a68b952fc7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mert Alkayaof Akira Santillan, Mert Alkaya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Akira Santillan | 7c | 10,000$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.73 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Akira Santillan | 28c | 8,128$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.43 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Mert Alkaya | 65c | 5,988$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.9 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Mert Alkaya | 70c | 1,942$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.72 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…935fbacked Akira Santillan | 7c | 1,447$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 173 | 23.7%41 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…dfa2backed Mert Alkaya | 53c | 1,413$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.37 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mert Alkaya | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Akira Santillan | 30c | 578.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed Mert Alkaya | 76c | 443.01$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mert Alkaya | 47c | 401.34$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.32 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…9dcdbacked Mert Alkaya | 53c | 375.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…df01backed Akira Santillan | 48c | 259.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Akira Santillan | 12c | 241.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Akira Santillan | 49c | 239.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Akira Santillan | 12c | 228.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mert Alkaya | 46c | 219.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Akira Santillan | 47c | 213.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Akira Santillan | 48c | 206.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Akira Santillan | 40c | 179.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Akira Santillan | 10c | 176.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Akira Santillan | 55c | 173.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Akira Santillan | 49c | 172.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Akira Santillan | 55c | 167.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Akira Santillan | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Akira Santillan | 15c | 161.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Akira Santillan | 48c | 161.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 313 | 47.6%149 W · 164 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Akira Santillan | 47c | 158.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Mert Alkaya | 49c | 151.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Mert Alkaya | 47c | 134.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Mert Alkaya | 48c | 125.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Mert Alkaya | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Akira Santillan | 56c | 107.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Akira Santillan | 49c | 105.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Akira Santillan | 48c | 105.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Akira Santillan | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Mert Alkaya | 56c | 98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Mert Alkaya | 79c | 92.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 280 | 55.4%155 W · 125 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mert Alkaya | 44c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Akira Santillan | 47c | 78.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mert Alkaya | 52c | 63.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mert Alkaya | 52c | 61.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Akira Santillan | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mert Alkaya | 52c | 60.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…3cf1backed Akira Santillan | 47c | 52.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Akira Santillan | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Mert Alkaya | 45c | 42.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Akira Santillan | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Akira Santillan | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Mert Alkaya | 53c | 37.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 308 | 60.1%185 W · 123 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Akira Santillan | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Akira Santillan | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Akira Santillan | 55c | 35.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Akira Santillan | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Akira Santillan | 55c | 27.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Mert Alkaya | 64c | 25.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c9…234dbacked Akira Santillan | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mert Alkaya | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Mert Alkaya | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Akira Santillan | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Akira Santillan | 56c | 19.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Mert Alkaya | 58c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 455 | 64.6%294 W · 161 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…24b9backed Mert Alkaya | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 132 | 76.5%101 W · 31 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mert Alkaya | 70c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Segovia: Akira Santillan vs Mert Alkayathis page
- Set Handicap: Alkaya (-1.5) vs Santillan (+1.5)Alkaya won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.